September 25th, 2009
Ann Pettifor: September 24, 2009
As world leaders meet in Pittsburgh and then Istanbul (for the World Bank and IMF meetings) expect much self-congratulation and back-slapping for having got the world through the post-Lehman crisis.
But behind the cacophony of self-praise, watch out for three alarms flashing red:
- The escalating foreclosure and rising mortgage delinquency rates in the US
- The dramatic contraction of credit in the US over the summer – putting paid to any hope of the US acting as the ‘engine’ of a global recovery
- That big accident waiting to happen to the European economies –Spain
With the help of a great new book – about to be published in the US – let’s take a look at why there is no room for complacency.
“No way to run an economy” (Pluto Press, 2009) is by a man whose research and analyses I have come to respect and rely upon – Graham Turner of GFC economics. While the book is full of solid facts and data – it is eminently readable for those prepared to unleash their inner wonk.
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September 10th, 2009
I could not put down Liaquat Ahamed’s riveting biographical account of ‘the bankers who broke the world’ – the central bankers, that is. (William Heinemann, 2009). Those that lorded it over the global economy during the Great Depression were Montagu Norman of the Bank of England (1920-1944); Benjamin Strong of the Federal Reserve (1914-1928),
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September 10th, 2009
  Make no mistake about it. We are in the middle of a monumental political conflict — with very high stakes. On one side: politicians, regulators and pundits, battling for the interests of middle-class Americans.
On the other: the banks and finance sector.
On the one side: Americans now burdened by the nationalised losses of the private finance sector and impoverished by unemployment, falling incomes or the collapse of savings, pensions, property prices, health care and investments.
On the other: financiers earning profits and bonuses and gambling with government-backed money on the stock exchange. This despite the sector’s responsibility for the devastating 2008 financial crisis — caused by self-serving greed and the collapse of a frenzied financial expansion that lasted these last three decades.
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September 3rd, 2009
Ann Pettifor: September 3rd, 2009
I have just listened to the excellent Dr. Paul Woolley on Radio 4′s the Today programme…He of the aptly named Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunction – like it. But what bothered me was his remark that the finance sector only acts as ‘intermediary’ between those with savings and those needing investment….
The truth that will not speak its name is that banks do not even do that….I learned all this at the feet of Dr. Geoff Tily, author of an important book on Keynes as first and foremost a monetary economist.
Because banks are licensed to create credit, and because bank money is such a wonderful human invention – there is no need for an investor to dip into someone else’s savings – or to hire an agent to act as an intermediary…..as I explained in a recent letter to the Guardian. (below my unedited version). I was responding to a piece by J Freedland, urging us all to join Zopa, and share our savings with those needing to borrow…..
“While I welcome Jonathan Freedland’s determination to sideline the banking sector, his remedy – the exchange of savings and loans via Zopa at interest rates in the region of 8% – is based on a profound misunderstanding of bank credit (Don’t howl with rage. Try an idea that does away with banks altogether, 19 August).
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September 2nd, 2009
The Motley Fool, September 2nd, 2009
Motley Fool blogger TMF Sinchiruna spotlights the Times interview, describing me as “once ridiculed, later vindicated…” TMF Sinchiruna goes on to say: “Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Niall Fergusson, Ann Pettifor … these are the voices that I believe investors need to hear. Turn off the tv and look
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September 1st, 2009
Article Published in the Times, September 1st 2009. Photo by Jon Enoch.
Ann Pettifor predicted a painful end to the good times. Now she says that only radical action can prevent further gloom
Phil Thornton
Ann Pettifor is a member of a select club — the seers who saw it all coming. Now the economist, who predicted the credit crunch as far back as 2003, believes that the worst is yet to come unless there is radical reform of the financial system.
Six years ago she parodied the International Monetary Fund’s annual economic forecast with her own — The Real World Economic Outlook. Then, in 2006, her book The Coming First World Debt Crisis, warned that rich countries were heading for a debt crisis that would overshadow anything seen in the developing world. Both were ridiculed.
With the British and world economies languishing in the worst recession since the Great Depression and with once-mighty banks reliant on government life support, she could be forgiven for being a little smug. Not a bit of it: “No, being Cassandra is not something I wish for. I hate this role of being a gloomer and doomer, as I’m an optimist by nature. But I am very pessimistic now.”
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September 1st, 2009
September 1st, 2009
Correction – I will be now be appearing on Thursday September 3rd on Jeff Randall Live on Sky News at 7.30pm
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In the September 2003 edition of openDemocracy I wrote:
Click here to read the full story in openDemocracy
BOOKS:
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