The Danni Minogue school of economics

23 October, 2009

Taking a leaf out of Simon Cowell’s book – an immodest boast: a couple of days ago the Guardian invited a range of economists/commentators to give a zero to 10 rating for ‘green shoots’ in the economy – in effect to revise our ratings produced in the Spring.  I am the only contributor to argue for a zero rating – Ruth Lea of the Arbuthnot Banking Group improves her rating to 2.5 – up from 1. Bang on time, the GDP numbers appeared – and ‘unexpectedly’ (for the Danni Minogue school of economists) GDP is down again – and this is now the longest recession since records began in 1955 – which goes some way to explaining the rise of the BNP.

My comment posted below:

“My rating for economic recovery has not changed much – and continues to hover around zero. This might seem odd given a slight (but meaningless) upturn in GDP, the stock market bubble, and swelling bank bonuses. And odd too, since a falling pound boosts exports and allows Russian oligarchs and other holders of euros to push up house prices by snapping up scarce London properties.

My pessimism persists because, despite the windfall gains provided by the Bank of England and taxpayers, the balance sheets of banks remain very fragile – making bonus profligacy both financially and morally questionable. Rising mortgage and other defaults will hurt the City of London as bankruptcies and unemployment worsen.

Domestic demand continues to fall, as banks tighten lending to consumers and companies, and as the latter pay down excessive debts. Things will be made worse as the environmentally crass “cash for clunkers” boost ends, and as VAT rises in January. The lower pound ought to help us balance this fall by boosting exports. But permanent output losses and the stalling of bank lending in both our major trading partners – the US and EU – mean there will be few customers for British goods. I am also not confident that a rising Asia can compensate for these losses – in time.

The growing political pressure to exacerbate the crisis by treating the government’s budget as if it were a simple household budget and forcing it to balance worries me most. Politicians have forgotten that when government debt was five times what it is today – 250% of GDP in 1945 – a Labour government began to spend: by investing in the NHS, public housing and education. Miraculously (for economic orthodoxy) government debt fell. In other words, the government budget is not at all like a household budget – because government spending generates tax revenues. The economy will only recover when government investment compensates for a collapse in private investment. Right now that spending could take the form of urgent measures needed to deal with climate change – for example property insulation, flood defences and energy efficiency. Instead of marching into an election clouded by grim unemployment numbers, the government could be mobilising a “carbon army of green-collar workers”. Sadly the grip of economic orthodoxy on the public imagination is such that we are about to trample all over feeble green shoots, and sink into the quagmire of depression.”

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9 comments to The Danni Minogue school of economics

  • alastair

    your economic recovery rating might be realistic, but the comparison with 1945 is not. I might be accused of being blinkered,

    and I am too young to know what it was really like, but I am struggling to see how where we are today bears any resemblance to the post war economy

    of 1945.

  • […] Debtonation » Blog Archive » The Dannie Minogue school of economics . […]

  • Joseph Angier

    I have to (and hate to) agree with you that I don’t see where these supposed “green shoots” are supposed to becoming from. So you’re

    absolutely right above everything — except for the most important element of your essay: the spelling of the Minogue the Younger’s name: it’s

    “Dannii”.

  • […] Debtonation » Blog Archive » The Dannie Minogue school of economics . […]

  • Joe Kennedy

    Well put, although i hope the depression prognosis doesn’t transpire. But then what’s to stop it?

    Unfortunately, from my

    perspective, you could repeat the essence of this post (but referring to the US) next Thursday or Friday after the US Q3 GDP is reported, and again

    be spot on.

  • ann

    Dear Mr. Murphy of Tax Research: I stand corrected….and thank you for drawing my attention to this appalling

    error.

  • ann

    Oops, a second error….these comments are poorly formatted. Forgive me Mr. Joseph Angier…have corrected the

    spelling of Danni, and thank you for drawing my attention to the error. Ann

  • ann

    Alastair, thank you for your commnet. I will blog on this and respond to your points next…

    Ann

  • Richard Schaerer

    I’m shocked at the lack of foresight of the powers that be. George Bush + Tony Blair were saying we have never had it so good but yet

    in such dumb papers as Newsweek you could read about the beginning of the end

    at the moment the governments of UK + USA are
    major

    shareholders in their Financial system
    while they are getting more + more embroiled in a war against terrorism

    we need to reduce this

    massive expenditure on war + armements to pay off the massive debts these inefficient bankers have landed us in

    they need to look at the

    plight of the unemployed rather than the plight of these billionaires who are hopefully going to have their bonusses taxed

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