Abandon Inflation Targeting

The Guardian, 12th July, 2008

In Ten tactics to brighten the gloom, the Guardian invited ten experts to give advice to the Chancellor and Prime Minister on how to lift the economic gloom – and to do it in just 100 words. Other contributors included Howard Davies, Robert Peston, Irwin Stelzer and Bill Emmot. Here is Ann Pettifor’s contribution:

Don’t crucify the economy on the cross of inflation. In the 1920s, central bankers crucified debt-laden economies on the cross of gold. In the 90s Japan’s finance ministry crucified that economy on the perceived threat of inflation. Ending the creditor-driven policy of inflation targeting frees up the Bank of England to cut interest rates and immediately helps debt-laden banks, companies and consumers. Inflation is feared most by creditors, grown rich on financial deregulation policies. The greater threat to the poor is a debt-deflationary spiral leading to high unemployment – made more certain by high real rates of interest.

Debtors (and banks?) ‘crucified’ on inflation cross

The FT reports today on a debate economists are having with the Bank of England (BoE). To summarise: the Bank of England does not seem bothered by falling house prices; economists are.

This is a very important debate for all those that have debts – because while house prices are falling, the debts on those houses loom larger for owners. According to the Office for National Statistics in May, unemployment is rising, and unemployment makes it hard, if not impossible, to pay off any kind of mortgage. This is the context in which the BoE is preparing to raise interest rates above the current 5% and appearing relaxed about falling house prices.
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The privatisation of interest rates

Few people understand how one of the most important levers in a debt-laden economy – interest rates – are set. Many believe that the rate is simply a result of supply and demand – the supply of savings and demand for those savings. Not true. In fact in Anglo-American economies savings have precious little to do with it. Interest rates – those for short-term and long-term loans; safe loans or risky loans – are a social construct. They are decided by a committee of mostly men. In Britain, the official rate is set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. In the US the official rate is set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee.

But there is another, less transparent committee of men that set interest rates. They are members of the private British Banking Association, and they set a rate of interest known as the Libor rate …. as Bloomberg (27 May, 08) explains:

” Every morning the BBA, an unregulated trade group, asks member banks how much it would cost them to borrow from each other for 15 different periods, from overnight to one year, in currencies from dollars to euros and yen. It then calculates averages, throwing out the four highest and lowest quotes, and publishes them at about 11:30 a.m. in London. Three-month dollar Libor was set at 2.64 percent today.”
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